The Yankees currently sit in third place in the AL East, 4.5 games behind the division-leading Blue Jays and 1.5 games behind Boston for the second AL Wild Card spot.
Are their playoff hopes over?
No, it’s far from over. Despite the recent slide, projections still favor the Yankees:
- According to Sports Illustrated, FanGraphs gives New York an 88.2% chance of making the playoffs, with an 8.7% chance of winning the World Series—the best odds in the American League.
- ESPN’s mid-July preview estimated an overall playoff probability around 93% and division title chances at about 59% before recent losses.
📉 What’s been going wrong?
- Since mid-June, the Yankees are 18–27, winning just one series against a team above .500. They’ve been swept by the Marlins and the Blue Jays, significantly hurting their standing.
- Bullpen struggles have been costly—their deadline pickups like Jake Bird have faltered, and closer Devin Williams has blown key leads.
- Former Yankees greats Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter have publicly criticized the team’s fundamentals and accountability issues on recent broadcasts.
🔧 Reasons for cautious optimism
- New trade deadline acquisitions (Ryan McMahon, Amed Rosario) have been well-received and bring needed depth, particularly at third base and utility roles.
- Advanced metrics show the Yankees have been the unluckiest team in MLB this season, with a +111 run differential and BaseRuns suggesting they should be several wins better than their record shows, pointing toward a potential second-half rebound, The Washington Post.
- A recent comparison to the 1995 Yankees suggests possible historical parallels: teams that slumped midseason then surged late to lock into a Wild Card run. It’s a path still possible if performance and luck turn around.
- Aaron Judge is due back shortly from an elbow injury, returning as a designated hitter initially before resuming right field duties, which could reinvigorate the lineup.
🧭 Bottom line
- It’s not too late. While their division hopes are dimming, the Yankees still hold strong odds for a playoff spot via the Wild Card.
- If they can fix bullpen issues, improve execution in close games, and benefit from Judge’s comeback, a comeback remains realistic.
- Ultimately, the season hinges on their ability to right the ship over the final two months, as a current contender but far from done.
About The Author
