The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) and Houston Texans (3-5) renew their AFC South rivalry in Week 10, as both teams look to strengthen their divisional footing. For Jacksonville, it’s about staying near the top of the standings and pushing toward the postseason. For Houston, it’s about resilience and proving they can compete even without their star quarterback.
This is the second meeting between the two clubs this season — the Jaguars won the first matchup 17-10, and now aim for a season sweep.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Staying in the South Race
The Jaguars enter Week 10 with a solid 5-3 record, keeping them firmly in the AFC South title hunt (Big Cat Country). Despite their success, injuries are starting to take a toll.
Key offensive contributors, including several wide receivers and offensive linemen, are battling injuries that could disrupt rhythm and chemistry. That could place added pressure on quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who will need to be efficient and competent against Houston’s physical front.
Still, Jacksonville remains confident after its earlier victory over the Texans. The team’s balance — featuring a steady defense, strong ground game, and timely throws from Lawrence — continues to be the key to their success.
Houston Texans: Battling Through Adversity
The Texans sit at 3-5, still within striking distance of turning their season around (Covers.com). However, this week brings a major challenge: quarterback C.J. Stroud has been ruled out with a concussion, forcing Davis Mills to return to the starting role.
Mills has experience under center, but without Stroud’s leadership and big-play ability, Houston’s offensive ceiling takes a hit. The Texans’ offense has struggled to score consistently this season, and as a result, their games have trended toward the Under — often featuring defensive battles and low-scoring outcomes.
Even so, the Texans’ defense has been gritty and opportunistic. If their front seven can create pressure and generate turnovers, they might have a chance to steal one at home.
🔍 Match-Up Focus
1️⃣ Jaguars’ Balanced Offense vs. Texans’ Defensive Strength
Houston’s defense has been one of the team’s few bright spots, showing flashes of dominance under pressure. Jacksonville will look to test its secondary and stretch the field when possible — but with offensive injuries mounting, the Jaguars may rely more on the running game and quick passing to maintain tempo.
2️⃣ Injuries and Depth
Both teams enter this matchup banged up. For Houston, losing Stroud significantly reduces their margin for error. For Jacksonville, depleted depth at receiver and offensive line raises questions about explosiveness. Whichever team better manages these personnel challenges will likely control the game’s flow.
3️⃣ Low Total & Physical Style
Oddsmakers have set the Over/Under in the high 30s (around 37.5–38). Expect a physical, defense-driven contest with long drives, few explosive plays, and field position determining the outcome.
This one could come down to which defense bends the least and which quarterback avoids the big mistake.
🎯 Prediction & Outlook
Given the Jaguars’ current momentum, more complete roster, and experience in close games, Jacksonville holds the edge. The Texans’ home-field advantage could keep things tight early, but the Jaguars’ consistency should carry them through.